NOAA: 81% Chance of a 'Very Strong' El Niño by Late 2026

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives 81% odds that El Niño — the periodic warming of Pacific waters that disrupts global weather — reaches "very strong" intensity by October–December 2026. The WMO's July assessment agrees. El Niño typically peaks November–February; NOAA gives 97% odds this one persists through early spring 2027.