NOAA Puts Odds of a 'Very Strong' El Niño at 81% for Late 2026

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now assigns an 81% probability that El Niño reaches "very strong" intensity during October–December 2026, with only a one-in-five chance it stays below that threshold. The August 10 forecast aligns with the WMO's July 31 assessment of an intensifying strong event. El Niño peaks November–February, but NOAA gives 97% odds it persists through early spring 2027.