Traders Now See 1-in-4 Chance of a July Fed Rate Hike

CME's FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting at 25% — a reversal from cut expectations earlier this year. The catalyst is Iran-driven: WTI crude hit $87.10 (up 19% in a month) and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.63% on July 22, stoking fears of rising prices alongside slowing growth.