Markets Now Price 25% Odds of a Fed Rate Hike on July 29

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 25% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting — a reversal from cut expectations earlier this year. The driver is the Iran crisis: WTI crude hit $87.10 (up 19% in a month) and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.63% on July 22, fueling stagflation concerns.