Warsh's Remarks Drove a Bigger Rate-Hike Odds Swing Than the Data Did

September Fed hike odds hit 57.5% after Kevin Warsh spoke, up from 40.1% post-August 26 data and 30.6% ten days prior, per Reuters. The 17-point swing from Warsh alone topped the move hard data triggered — meaning rate expectations are reacting more to single-speaker commentary than to actual economic shifts.