Fed Hike Odds Jumped 17 Points on Warsh's Words, Not Data

Markets priced a 57.5% chance of a September Fed rate hike after Kevin Warsh's remarks, up from 40.1% after August 26 data and 30.6% ten days earlier, per Reuters. The 17-point post-Warsh swing exceeded the move from hard data alone, suggesting rate expectations are reacting to single-speaker commentary more than economic shifts.