Opportunities Party rises to kingmaker spot, tightening 2026 coalition maths

The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll puts the Opportunities Party in a kingmaker position — able to decide which side governs. That complicates coalition talks for both National- and Labour-aligned blocs ahead of the 2026 election. Labour dropped 1.8 points to its lowest since the 2023 election. Hipkins led the preferred PM race at 21.3 percent to Luxon's 19.9.