NOAA Forecasts 90% Chance of a Very Strong El Niño for 2026-27

NOAA now sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter — up from 81% on 9 August. That means Pacific sea surface temperatures running 2°C or more above normal, enough to disrupt rainfall, temperatures, and crops worldwide. It follows La Niña conditions into early 2026, completing a full Pacific flip within one year.