NOAA: Greater Than 90% Chance of a Very Strong El Niño in 2026-27

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced on 13 August 2026 that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27 — up from 81% forecast on 9 August. A very strong El Niño, defined as Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies at or above 2.0°C, would reshape global precipitation, temperature, and agricultural outlooks. The event follows La Niña conditions that persisted into early 2026, marking a full Pacific phase transition within one calendar year.