Australia Faces Heightened Bushfire Risk Across Six States as El Niño Strengthens

AFAC's spring 2026 outlook forecasts heightened bushfire risk across the Northern Territory, New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and South Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology's Niño3.4 index reached +2.20°C — nearly triple the +0.80°C El Niño threshold. Dry eastern soils, above-average northern fuel loads, and invasive grasses drive the threat.