Six Australian States Face Elevated Bushfire Risk as El Niño Intensifies

AFAC's spring 2026 outlook flags heightened bushfire risk across six states: the Northern Territory, New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and South Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology's Niño-3.4 index — a Pacific Ocean warming benchmark — hit +2.20°C, nearly triple El Niño's +0.80°C threshold. Dry eastern soils, heavy northern fuel loads, and invasive grasses compound the threat.