Oil Traders and Bank Analysts Split on Geopolitical Risk

Brent settled at $90.84 on July 22, well below June's $98 intraday peak during the Iran-Israel strikes. Goldman and HSBC hold 2026 Brent forecasts of $85 and $95, citing the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Front-month prices fell 5.31% on May 27 as U.S.-Iran diplomacy advanced. The gap signals traders are pricing de-escalation the banks aren't.