Oil Traders and Bank Analysts Split on Geopolitical Risk: Brent at $91 vs. Forecasts Up to $95

Brent settled at $90.84 on July 22, far below the $98 intraday peak hit during the June 8 Iran-Israel strikes. Yet Goldman Sachs and HSBC maintain 2026 Brent average forecasts of $85 and $95, citing the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Front-month prices fell 5.31% on May 27 as U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks progressed. The gap signals traders are pricing de-escalation the banks aren't.