Brent's $69–$92 Range: Fear of Disruption, Not a Strait Shutdown

Brent crude has swung from $69 to over $92 since June 2026, tracking each phase of the U.S.–Iran conflict. Markets are pricing intermittent disruption, not a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply. Each escalation that fails to close the strait narrows that margin of safety.