Brent's $69–$92 Swing Tells You What Oil Markets Actually Fear — and What They Don't

Brent crude has swung from $69 to over $92 since June 2026, tracking each phase of the U.S.–Iran conflict cycle. The range signals markets are pricing intermittent disruption, not a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply. Each escalation that fails to close the strait narrows that margin of safety.