Oil's Hormuz surge won't hit CPI until September — complicating the Fed's next move

July CPI arrives August 12 but predates the worst Hormuz-driven crude spike. The oil jump won't appear in official inflation data (CPI — the Consumer Price Index) until the September 11 BLS release covering August. That lag leaves the Fed easing rates while geopolitical price pressure builds outside the data window policymakers watch.