Gas at $2.89 as Market Bets on Export Ramp Over Storage Surplus

U.S. natural gas storage sits at 3,169 Bcf as of August 14, 2026 — 185 Bcf above the five-year average. Yet front-month NYMEX futures trade at $2.89/MMBtu. The EIA attributes price strength to anticipated 2026 balance shifts, not current abundance. Pipeline exports are projected to rise from 9.5 Bcf/d in 2025 to 10.0 Bcf/d in 2027, tightening the domestic market.