Natural Gas Futures Price In 27% Winter Premium as Europe's Storage Hits Record Low

August spot gas at $2.76/MMBtu, but December 2026 futures at $3.495 — a 27% step-up. Europe's gas stocks hit a record low after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran squeezed supply. The EIA projects U.S. pipeline exports rising to 10.0 Bcf/d in 2027 from 9.5 in 2025. The forward curve prices winter risk; the question is whether spot is underpricing near-term tightness.