Gold Reclaims $4,600, Breaking Above HSBC's July Forecast on Treasury Buybacks, Not Fed Dovishness

Spot gold hit $4,601.29 on August 21, 2026, topping HSBC's revised 2026 average forecast of $4,560 — a level the bank cut from $4,864 in July, citing a hawkish Fed tilt. The rally's driver: the US Treasury doubled long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation on August 19, easing financial conditions without any Fed pivot. The 30-year Treasury yield fell toward 5.2% from 5.34%.