Fed Minutes Reveal Markets and Dealers Split on Rate Path

The Fed's July 28–29 FOMC minutes, released August 19, show the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75%. But the path ahead is disputed: futures markets fully priced two 25-basis-point hikes by early 2027, while the Open Market Desk Survey median expects no change until a first cut in early 2028. That gap between positioning-driven pricing and dealer consensus is the key tension heading into September.