November gas below $3, December above $3.50: futures curve splits on winter risk

EIA projects U.S. natural gas storage will reach a record 3,985 Bcf by end-October 2026. Yet CME Henry Hub last-day futures show November 2026 at 2.970 and December 2026 at 3.580 — a 61-cent gap. The market is pricing winter heating demand risk despite a record storage surplus.