Japan's September 8 GDP Revision Will Test Whether Import-Price Squeeze Is Holding

Japan's ESRI releases its Second Preliminary GDP estimate for Apr.–Jun. 2026 on September 8 at 8:50 AM JST. The first estimate showed a 2.6% GDP deflator and an import deflator (4.9%) outpacing exports (3.4%) — a widening gap signaling deteriorating terms of trade. When import prices rise faster than export prices, domestic incomes get squeezed even if output volumes hold. Confirmation or revision of these readings will shape the inflation debate.