UK inflation forecast to jump to 2.9% in July as energy price cap bites

Economists expect ONS figures due 19 August to show UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.6% in June. The main driver: Ofgem's 13% energy price cap hike, which lifted average household bills to £1,862 per year. The Bank of England forecasts inflation reaching 3.2% by year-end and is considering raising interest rates as early as September.