Markets Price 38% Chance of September Fed Hike Despite Central Bank's Forecast Cut

The Fed has held rates at 3.50%–3.75% across three meetings and forecasts one cut in 2026. Yet traders priced a 38% chance of a hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. With inflation at 3.4% — above the 2% target — tariff-driven cost pressures keep markets cautious. Savers' yields hold; borrowers see no relief.