Oil and stocks surge on Iran ceasefire, but gains hinge on durability

Crude and equities jumped after Trump's June 15 ceasefire announcement. The reason: the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of global oil flows, faces less disruption risk. De-escalation removes what traders call the geopolitical risk premium—the extra cost priced into oil when conflict looms. The real test is whether the deal holds and what it actually requires operationally.