Markets Rally on Iran Ceasefire, But Gains Reflect Risk Removal, Not Growth

Stock and oil futures jumped on Trump's June 15 announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The move is straightforward: conflict there threatens the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes. De-escalation compresses the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices. But the rally partly reflects removal of a downside tail risk rather than a genuine growth catalyst. Durability depends on whether the agreement holds and what its operational terms actually require.