Conservatives rise to low 20s, edge past Reform UK ahead of conference

The Conservatives opened their Birmingham conference in early October 2026 polling in the low 20s, up from 14-16% a year earlier, occasionally edging ahead of Reform UK for the first time in almost two years. A year earlier MPs anticipated a possible challenge to Kemi Badenoch. Labour still led voting intention nationally. The fight now is survival, not dominance.