YouGov projects Labour largest in hung parliament with 241 seats

YouGov's MRP projection published 24 September 2026 puts Labour on 241 seats in a hung parliament, a net loss of 170 from the 2024 election. Based on almost 17,000 interviews from 23 August to 18 September, I read this as fragmentation rather than a transfer of power, with 37% of seats decided by five points or less.