YouGov MRP Forecasts Hung Parliament With Labour Largest on 241 Seats

Labour would remain largest on 241 seats in a hung parliament, YouGov projects. The 24 September MRP forecast — a model using almost 17,000 interviews from 23 August to 18 September — shows a net loss of 170 seats since 2024. I read this as fragmentation, not a handover, with 37% of seats within five points.