UK Goods Exports to EU Still 18% Below Pre-Brexit Levels; Services Bounced Back

Five years after Brexit, UK goods exports to the EU remain 18 percent below 2019 baselines in real terms, according to Federal Reserve analysis from January 2026. Services exports, meanwhile, have exceeded pre-Brexit levels. The divergence reflects the structural cost of leaving the single market and customs union—tariffs, customs declarations, and origin checks that manufacturers face but which never constrained services trade the same way. The goods shortfall persists despite 2025 UK-EU defence and veterinary agreements.