Traders Refuse to Ditch Oil Risk Premium on Iran Ceasefire Talk

U.S.-Iran ceasefire signals on June 12 pushed diplomacy closer to agreement, but energy traders are keeping risk premiums baked into Brent and Henry Hub contracts. About 20% of global oil trades the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions persist. Historically, formal ceasefire texts precede actual de-escalation by weeks or months, leaving traders vulnerable to false signals. Front-month energy contracts still price meaningful geopolitical friction.