RBA signals no rate cuts until 2027 as inflation stays above target

Australia's central bank held its cash rate at 4.35% on 16 June, the first pause after a May increase. The RBA projects underlying inflation will stay above its 3% target through mid-2027, effectively locking out rate cuts until late 2026 at earliest. The pause reflects the Board's patience: holding allows May's tightening to transmit through the economy before reassessing. Without faster inflation decline, real rates remain accommodative despite headline constraints.