U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Lifts Oil Risk Premium, But Iranian Supply Won't Follow Quickly

The June 15 U.S.-Iran peace accord removes a geopolitical premium that had supported energy prices since February. Markets will reprice this risk slowly, over sessions rather than hours. But don't expect Iranian crude flooding markets soon: sanctions, production infrastructure backlogs, and OPEC+ dynamics will govern how fast Iranian barrels return. The structural direction of natgas remains set by domestic supply growth, not Middle East geopolitics.