India's Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time, Reshaping Long-Term Fiscal Pressure

India's Total Fertility Rate reached 2.0 children per woman according to the National Family Health Survey announcement in May 2026, crossing below the 2.1 replacement threshold. The decline from 6.0 in 1951 reflects urbanization, rising female literacy, and healthcare expansion. Population will still grow due to existing cohorts, but the age structure shifts decisively toward more retirees relative to workers—pressuring pension systems and long-term care infrastructure unless productivity growth accelerates significantly.