Odds of October Fed hike fall to 21.6%

21.6% chance of an October U.S. rate rise is now priced in, down from about 51% a week ago, Reuters reported on October 7, 2026. That means at least a 0.25-point increase — 25 basis points — looks less likely, easing near-term pressure on loan and savings rates. I see priced caution, not a promise.