Policymakers Face 6-12 Week Deadline to Prepare for Major El Niño

Australia warns that a potentially strong El Niño cycle is forming, with heat, drought, and fire risk expected across the Southern Hemisphere. The window to pre-position water reserves, fire readiness, and agricultural insurance closes within six to twelve weeks as impacts accelerate. Seasonal forecasting accuracy has improved since the 1990s, but translating Pacific warming into precise regional rainfall remains uncertain. The economic cost of major El Niño events—the 1997-98 cycle exceeded $5 trillion globally—underscores the stakes.