Hezbollah carve-out leaves Iran-Israel ceasefire structurally fragile

Iran and Israel halted strikes on June 8–9 after their first direct exchange since April's ceasefire. Yet the framework remains unstable: Israel explicitly exempted Hezbollah from the Iran truce, creating a legal gap that allows continued operations in Lebanon. Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned talks could freeze if Israeli attacks there persist, linking the Lebanon theatre to broader diplomacy. That structural tension—baked into the ceasefire from its inception—leaves the agreement vulnerable to the next provocation.