Oil Markets Care Less About Israeli Strikes Than About Iran's Infrastructure

Israel struck Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, but energy markets are pricing something far more specific: whether Iran's crude export infrastructure—Kharg Island in particular—gets hit. Iran produces 3.2–3.4 million barrels daily; loss of export capacity would tighten global supply. So far, strikes have spared infrastructure. If that holds, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices should compress.