Why Oil Markets Are Watching Iran's Export Terminals, Not the Strikes

Israel's October 26 strikes on Iranian military sites barely moved oil prices. What matters to traders: whether Iran's export infrastructure—especially Kharg Island—survives. Iran ships 3.2–3.4 million barrels daily. Losing export capacity would squeeze global supply. So far, the facilities have been spared. If that continues, oil's geopolitical risk premium should fall.