$100 Oil Returns: The Inflation Risk Central Banks Didn't Price In

Oil breached $100 per barrel in March 2026 after Israel's pre-emptive strike on Iran—the first time since 2022. The spike threatens to re-anchor inflation expectations upward precisely when major central banks had begun signaling rate cuts. A sustained surge risks disrupting fiscal space in emerging markets and complicating the narrative of economic normalization that had justified recent monetary easing.