GDP Forecast Rises While Leading Index Keeps Falling

The Conference Board nudged its 2026 US GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% on July 20. Yet its Leading Economic Index — a forward-looking gauge of economic momentum — fell 0.2% in June to 99.1, extending a year-long slide. Current growth holds; future signals don't. Historically the leading index calls turning points first, though it has produced false positives.