GDP Forecast Gets a Nudge Up While Leading Index Points Down

The Conference Board raised its 2026 US GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% on July 20, even as its Leading Economic Index fell 0.2% in June to 99.1 — the latest in a year-long slide (–0.3% in H1 2026, –1.1% in H2 2025). Current growth holds; the forward-looking gauge does not. Historically, when these two diverge, the leading index calls the turn first — though with documented false positives.