IEA's 4 Million b/d Surplus vs. Four Banks Eyeing $100 Brent

Four major banks — Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan — forecast Brent crude at $100 per barrel in 2026, each tied to a geopolitical risk: Strait of Hormuz disruption or Russian supply cuts. Meanwhile, the IEA projects a 4 million b/d oversupply — roughly 4% of global demand. The banks price tail risks; the IEA describes its base case. Both can be right.