Oil: Banks Say $100, but the World Has Too Much

Four big banks — Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan — predict oil at $100 a barrel in 2026 if a war or supply cutoff hits. The IEA, an energy watchdog, says the world will actually have 4 million barrels a day more oil than it needs — about 4% above demand. The banks bet on worst-case scenarios; the IEA describes the likely outcome. Both can be right.