IEA Sees 4 Million b/d Oil Surplus as Four Banks Target $100 Brent

Four major banks — Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase — forecast Brent crude at $100 per barrel in 2026, each contingent on a geopolitical risk: Strait of Hormuz disruption or Russian supply cuts. The IEA estimates a near-4 million b/d oversupply — roughly 4% of global demand — for 2026. The banks are pricing tail risks; the IEA describes its base case. Both can be right.