MBA forecasts 5% drop in 2027 mortgage originations to $2.101 trillion

The Mortgage Bankers Association on Oct. 11, 2026, forecast U.S. mortgage originations will fall 5% in 2027 to $2.101 trillion, with rates staying above 7%. That leaves borrowers locked out of refinancing and buyers facing stretched affordability. I see no housing turnover rebound until coupons break sustainably lower.