Lease Expirations Will Flood Used EV Markets Faster Than Incentive Programs Drive New Sales

EV leases expiring annually will nearly triple from 123,000 in 2025 to 660,000 by 2028, flooding used markets with affordable inventory. This supply surge may accelerate electrification more effectively than federal tax credits for new purchases. Used EVs entering secondary markets at steep discounts—a 2023 Ioniq 5 dropped to $28,000 from $58,000—now compete directly with subsidized new vehicles, shifting adoption patterns away from policy incentives toward market-driven pricing.