Carbon Market's Tree Problem: Photosynthesis Doesn't Equal Storage

A January 2026 study in New Phytologist found that photosynthesis does not reliably translate to wood growth in trees—the gap that matters for carbon credits. Trees allocate most fixed carbon to respiration, reproduction, and defenses before surplus reaches durable woody tissue. This decoupling threatens the mathematical foundation of forest carbon offsets, where companies purchase credits assuming measurable emissions reductions. Carbon accounting models may systematically overstate sequestration, complicating net-zero commitments.