Oil Chokepoint Threat Could Push Rate Cuts Further Out

President Trump demanded Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face U.S. military action. Twenty percent of global crude flows through that strait daily. An energy shock would spike oil prices with a lag into PCE inflation—now at 2.4%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's post-pandemic aversion to calling disruptions "transitory" means rate cuts get delayed, not hastened, if energy reignites inflation.