April CPI Spike Closes Door on June Fed Rate Cut

The Consumer Price Index jumped to 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, up 50 basis points from March's 3.3%. With the Fed funds rate above 4%, real rates remain restrictively positive. The FOMC meets June 16–17 with only the May CPI release (due June 10) as new inflation data. Markets have repriced sharply toward a hold. The critical question: whether April's acceleration signals durable re-ignition or transient noise.